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Water FractalTier 2
at Plenty of Games Distorted Reflections Regionals
decks
2
(4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
6-9-2
overall winrate
41.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.3%
avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
45.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1313
· median 1313
· range 1214–1412
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032
Q1 1200
Q3 1408
1689
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 36.2% | 4 | 1-2-1 | 37.5% | 43.8% | 43.5% | -4.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 12.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.3 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 8.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 6.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.9% | -19.3 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.3% | +11.6 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.7% | +4.3 |
| Fire Suited | 4.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Wind Allies | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.3% | -15.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 4.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.4% | -7.4 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.7% | -13.3 |
| Horse and Taxes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 2.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.9% | +1.8 |
| Water Genbu | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.2% | +14.8 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 2.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 2.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.8% | +6.1 |
