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Water FractalTier 2

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decks
2 (4.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17 6-9-2
overall winrate
41.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
43.3% avg ELO -2.6 per match
expected value
45.4% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.6% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1313 · median 1313 · range 1214–1412 (2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1032 Q1 1200 Q3 1408 1689
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Rile 36.2% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 43.5% -4.2
Wind Shadowstrike 12.8% 0
Fire Suzaku 10.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.0% -14.3
Wind Astra Cleric 8.5% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.7% -13.3
Fire Aggro 6.4% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 37.9% -19.3
Fire Crux Mage 6.4% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 57.3% +11.6
Fire Luxem Assassin 6.4% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 52.7% +4.3
Fire Suited 4.3% 0
Water Allies 4.3% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.2% +14.8
Wind Allies 4.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 40.3% -15.6
Wind Seiryuu 4.3% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 45.4% -7.4
Fire Aetherwing 2.1% 0
Fire Exia 2.1% 0
Fire Umbra Guardian 2.1% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 41.7% -13.3
Horse and Taxes 2.1% 0
Slimes 2.1% 0
Water Crux Mage 2.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 51.9% +1.8
Water Genbu 2.1% 0
Water Seiryuu 2.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.2% +14.8
Water Tera Kongming 2.1% 0
Wind Exia 2.1% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 53.8% +6.1
Decklists · 2 from this event

The 2 public Water Fractal decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

JSON: /api/events/32627/archetypes/Water Fractal